Mob Rule: Five take-aways from my week in the U.S.

Five take-aways from my week in the U.S.

1. It’s a mess here
2. America is still strong
3. There has been social deterioration
4. Political dysfunction tolerates anti-trans hate speech
5. Americans are experiencing economic distress

Bonus: The mob minority rule is a product of 3 factors

1.) “It’s a mess here.”

This is the universal assessment from nearly everyone I have talked with since I landed in Boston, Massachusetts one week ago, after two years in Sydney, Australia. I have returned to an America that I have not seen before. My impression is that much of this difficulty is COVID related.

The impact of COVID can be understood a little better by thinking about the power of emotions that exhaust or motivate the population. COVID has distributed a combination of weary and angry emotions across groups of people that is promoting the rule of a mob minority of about 30% of the radical politically active population.

The exhaustion of the worn-out majority and the mobilization of the amped-up minority has resulted in a disproportionate level of political weight for a small group of people across America.

2. America is still strong.

America is resilient and America IS NOT BROKEN. Contrary to everyone who wants to gleefully say that America is in decline, that is not my analysis. 81 million Americans rejected Trumpism in November 2020. The great experiment and the United States as a leader on the world stage remains. But large global pandemics hit large countries in dramatic and terrible ways. Here are some important facts to remember, for context:

• 259 million Americans (78% of the public) have at least one dose of vaccine;
• 221 million are fully vaccinated (67% of the public) or put another way, the entire population — every person — in the UK, France, Italy, Greece and Portugal COMBINED;

• More than 80 million people have recovered from COVID;
• Unemployment is at 3.6%; and
• The U.S. is leading the world in helping Ukraine with more than $25 billion dollars (see below).

3. There has been social deterioration.

One million Americans are dead from COVID. Even if we take into account that other countries have not counted their numbers similarly, this is a catastrophic loss for individual families and the country as as whole in the United States. 84.5 million Americans got COVID, and 1 of every 84 died from COVID. Staggering and titanic in its level of systemic failure.

The second social element you may have expected me to mention is gun violence. Yet, following tragedies in Albany, Uvalde, and Tulsa this is not a shock, change, or surprise to me or many Americans. The disgust that was tolerated following the mass murder of 6 and 7 year olds at Sandy Hook has never really left me from 10 years ago: December 14, 2012. If the United States political system could not find it in itself to impose a single new penalty on high capacity magazine use in the wake of this slaughter of 20 children then there is little reason to hope for change today. Elementary and primary school should not be a death sentence in America. But today that exactly what it is for some.

4. Political dysfunction that tolerates anti-trans hate speech

The minority of about 32% of Americans are directing social consideration of issues from Roe V. Wade, to transgender children’s access to hormone therapy, to the “Don’t Say Gay” Bill in Florida. Indeed, a sign of social regression and deterioration is also not picking on transgender or gay people. This is not a shock. The shock is the relative tolerance for anti-transgender hate speech and bizarre pedophile conspiracy theory language.

It is also pretty sick. Attacks on transgender children and their parents will ultimately be defeated but at a cost. Parents of transgender children are not abusers. The nuclear button approach to anti-LGBTQ hate speech will lead to a backlash, but this social reaction may wait for 2024.

5. Americans are experiencing economic distress: First, thank goodness for the jobs numbers or the United States would be seeing an economic collapse. Having said that, lots and lots, and lots of small business have gone out of business. Some have also just sold at a loss, so they may not be captured by the data. These small and medium sized business make up the social fabric of local communities that build social cohesion. As a result, there is a domino effect on the shuttering of these business for local life in small town America.

There is also a weariness that comes from a lack of access to regularly available goods. I was told that there was no mustard at the hot dog stand I went to, for 6 months. I was told Subway was “out of turkey” because of supply chain issues. Basics are no longer reachable. Gas Prices are creating an aversive emotional situation and the baby formula shortage is clustering this series of negative events together into a difficult-to-emotionally-process situation.

FINALLY — The mob minority rule in America is a product of three underlying structural factors:

(a) A weakened relationship between citizens and the the State, which was has become especially frayed and fragile following the Trump presidency. This can be analyzed by thinking about “trust.” In 2021, the Pew Research Center put out the data (below) which found that “Only about one-quarter of Americans say they can trust the government in Washington to do what is right.”

(b) A global pandemic with no simple or timely answers. This timeline or lack-thereof has created an unendurable emotional situation across America. America is an inward looking nation. We believe in pulling ourselves up by our bootstraps. However, COVID presented a lack of permanent solutions and no end point. COVID keeps coming back. And given the scale of the disaster the lack of a timeline or solutions when it comes to masks, vaccines, gas-prices, baby formula, or supply-chains this aversive condition has exposed a societal conflict between the desire for individual freedom and the demands required to care for those populations most vulnerable to COVID.

(c ) A media environment that chases the extreme views of the minority and amplifies them across the political spectrum. The result is a minority view that appears to be much larger. Added to this is the presence of a savy policy entrepreneur in former President Trump and a lack of professional discretion on the part of news organizations, which has allowed a conspiracy-minded fringe ideas to gain attention.

Dr. Christopher L. Pepin-Neff is a Senior Lecturer in Public Policy at the University of Sydney.