5 Take-Aways from Roe Earthquake
With the reporting from Politico that the Supreme Court has essentially voted to overturn both Roe v. Wade and Casey, everything now depends on Democrats holding the U.S. Senate. Nothing else matters.
Here are my 5 quick take-aways from the Roe reversal news:
- The gays are next. And soon. There has been an important legal shift afoot amongst Right-Wing Extremists who view the concept of precedent as a function of the number of votes they have on the Court rather than time. The magic number was always 6 for them. Once extremists had 6 votes in the majority their legal strategy would be loaded with rocket-fuel. Indeed, they will now move swiftly to overturn the Lawrence decision (2003) that legalized gay sex and Obergefell (2015) that legalized gay marriage.
2. No infighting. Not only is the media more concerned about who leaked the draft opinion than the opinion itself, but the Left has now decided to attack the Left over something that the Extreme Right has done. Only the Democrats can manage to revive cannibalism in a moment of national political crisis. The simple fact is that this is the very beginning of the political battle, not the end. As a result, we need to build our ranks not alienate them.
3. Democrats need to abandon the House, save the U.S. Senate. Literally nothing matter but the Senate now. This is for three reasons: first, it’s the only real game in town anyway. The Democrats are not close to holding the House. The House is gone. So it is time to redeploy resources with the chance of holding the Senate. Secondly, if Republicans win the House and the Senate, McConnell will end the filibuster and they will pass federal legislation to ban abortions in every state. Yes, Biden will fight but they are willing to gleefully shut down the Government for as long as it takes to win. Third, there may actually be a SCOTUS vacancy in the next two years and this will only be considered under a Democratic majority.
4. Chuck Schumer needs to step up. This is a new moment in time for the Senate Majority Leader, Chuck Schumer. He simply does not have the votes to over turn the filibuster. But the way he manages the Senate and gets through some issues on the domestic agenda may be the key to holding the Senate. So the post-Roe keys for Schumer may be to think small.
5. Biden should be everyone’s new best friend. Let’s play out the numbers. Republicans take the House and have a good chance to take the Senate. In which case, the only card left for Democrats to play is in the White House. The way in which Biden is supported against a political onslaught of impeachment, government shut downs, Supreme Court rulings, 2024 speculation and the actions of a former president will be key to Democratic survival. The Democratic party — and dare I say, democracy may hang in the balance of how the public rallies around President Biden in the next two years.
Dr. Christopher L. Pepin-Neff is a Senior Lecturer in Public Policy at the University of Sydney.
